Recent reports from Norwegian military intelligence suggest that Russia seems to be gaining an upper hand in the ongoing Ukraine conflict. The size of the Russian forces is believed to be three times larger than their Ukrainian counterparts.
The Ukrainian forces are facing difficulties in the rotation of troops and maintaining their equipment. A notable development that could likely impact their operations is the replacement of the Ukrainian commander-in-chief. On the Western front, the military aid provided to Ukraine appears insufficient, according to Admiral Nils Andreas Stensønes. This is primarily due to the reduction in U.S. military aid because of the lack of a Congressional agreement.
Meanwhile, Russia's war economy is expected to play a decisive role in its military power development beyond 2024. The increased production of weapons and equipment, coupled with increased military spending, could bring Russian combat power back to its pre-2022 levels within three to five years following the war. There are also predictions of a major Russian offensive in Ukraine by 2024.
Adding to the complexity of the situation is the increased cooperation between Russia and non-Western countries in the wake of Western sanctions. Russia has been fostering closer ties with nations like Iran, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf states, a strategy seen as a means to circumvent sanctions. This increase in cooperation among non-democratic nations poses a significant challenge to Western dominance.
Russia also seems to be girding for a prolonged confrontation with the West. Their plans include increasing military personnel to 1.5 million by 2026. They also intend to reactivate the Moscow and Leningrad military regions, establish new divisions in Karelia, and form new infantry and airborne troops.
Many interpret this military expansion as a political signal from Russia, showcasing their readiness to face any potential threats.