NBA season at risk

As NBA owners and players engage in negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement, the grim reality of a canceled season is growing.  On Oct. 10, after a seven-hour collective bargaining session ended without an agreement, NBA Commissioner David Stern announced that the first two weeks of the NBA season have been canceled.  This marks the first time the league has lost games due to a work stoppage since the 1998-99 season, which was reduced to 50 games.

$3.8 billion. That's the amount of basketball related income (BRI) the NBA players and owners split during the 2010-11 season.  That staggering sum wasn't enough to placate both parties under the previous agreement, as owners claim losses totaling in excess of $300 million from last season alone.  The players adamantly dispute that figure, claiming the numbers are inflated for leverage in the negotiating process.

Accurate or not, the two parties have failed to progress in talks this summer and early fall.

 "We remain very, very far apart on virtually all issues," Stern told a crowd of reporters in New York. "We just have a gulf that separates us. We are so far apart … we can't close the gap."

While a variety of issues have yet to be resolved between the two sides, the biggest obstacle to reaching an agreement appears to be the splitting of the near-$4 billion in BRI.  Under the previous system, players received 57 percent of all BRI.  According to multiple reports, the players have proposed a reduced share of 53 percent in negotiations, while the owners have offered 47 percent, representing a gap of nearly $230 million per season based on 2010 figures.

Other significant issues continue to divide the two sides.  Owners and players have yet to agree on the length of contracts, annual player raises and the all-important salary cap structure.  Owners are pressing for a hard salary cap, which would put a ceiling on the allowable salaries each team can take on.   As in past negotiations, players are rejecting this proposal, knowing that a hard cap would reduce the overall pool for players' salaries.

NBA Player's Association outside counsel Jeffrey Kessler expressed his worry over this issue to SI.com.

"The BRI isn't going to doom the season," said Kessler. "The hard cap will doom the season."

While neither side has reportedly gained traction behind closed doors, strategic rhetoric from both parties continues in an attempt to sway public opinion.

"Both parties still have to bargain in good faith, and that's what a lot of the accusations are that fly back and forth," said Richland Business Law Professor Don James.

And while NBA owners hope that a missed paycheck might invoke chaos within the players' union, it's the players who ultimately hold the leverage.

"If it were a negotiation between the United Electrical Workers and a company, there is always the prospect of going out and hiring non-union labor," said James.  "The NBA can't do that.  The Dallas Mavericks just can't do that."

While James optimistically projects that an agreement will be made to salvage a partial season for the NBA, Commissioner Stern continues to speak about the possibility of canceling more games.

"With every day that goes by, I think we need to look at further reductions on what's left of the season," Stern said in New York.

Call it a threat; call it posturing.  Either way, for those hoping to watch the NBA anytime soon, you'd better check your DVR.